Re: North Korea - Anybody Worried?

[Elyse]

I've been hearing on the news that North Korea is threatening to start wars against countries, testing nuclear missiles, etc. Do you think this is something to worry about (ie: would they really start a war and send a nuke over?), or are they just bluffing? Some news outlets said NK has bluffed about this stuff before, but I don't know...seems kinda serious to me. I'm pretty worried - the last thing we need is a nuclear war!! 

[Andy]

Well you're too far North you'll be ok.

and we've got some Deep caves 5 mins drive away

[Marc]

Its not so much whether they will, as whether they can. Its one thing sending a satalite into orbit (which they have done) its quite another to attach a nuke small enough to a rocket which is directed at a specific place a thousand miles away.

[Andy]

All the major countries will be sending in covert teams to sabotage NK's nuclear weapons facilities.

It "shouldn't" get out of hand.

[love4Luna]

To me, its kind of a two sided answer. In a way, no. I think enough world military can keep them in check, and also like you said, they've been bluffing for years.

But also, it could be possible. Its dangerous to not take threats seriously. Don't want to hold a deaf ear to the crying wolf, only to have the wolf actually come...

But more so, I'm leaning more towards no.

[LittleLuka]

i don't know, but i hope not. the last thing we need is another major attack.

[Jay]

I just saw on the news at lunchtime that the US is going to deploy ground based missile interceptors in Alaska.  I am not worried about it, there really isn't a point to worry since that is half the point of N Korea is to get people on edge.

[Elyse]

I don't know...overconfidence is a dangerous thing when it comes to war. 

 

I'm also worried about chemical weapons, I don't know if they have the capability to produce them but apparently mustard gas is relatively cheap and easy to produce in comparison to a nuclear warhead. Also would be lighter, I'd imagine, which would increase the range of their missiles?? 

[Keanu]

I am not worried as I am not in the possition to do anything about it. I am leaving it to those who know better than me and I have to trust them. My worrying would not change anything so as well I may go fishing:P

[Removed #5]

Maybe it's just my military background that's coming to the fore here, but in consideration, I find some of these responses trite and condescending.

Thank the gods that we have just a very small handful of rogue states.  Of these, North Korea and Iran seem to be consistently the most contentious.  In 2006 PRK joined the community of countries who have nuclear capability; with their successful launch of a nuclear capable ICBM class rocket last December they now pose a very real threat to more then the immediate (global) area.

Solitary Howl raises a very legitimate question.  True, PRK have "rattled their sabers" loudly and often.  But they haven't been deterred from taking on the US a time or two before.  Their capture of the USS Pueblo in 1968 wasn't something the US took lightly, but being in the wrong ( US intelligence boat in PRK national waters, huh??? ) there wasn't much they could do.

This third generation of the Kim family to lead the PRK have, seemingly across the board, a reputation for being "playboys" which causes some to wonder whence the direction of the country will come.  Kim Il Sung was, without doubt, a tyrannical ruler of a country, leading it into and then out of the Korean conflict.  His leadership, supported by the military was absolute.  It doesn't appear, at least to me, that Kim Jogn-Un has the same control (read power) over the military that either his father or grandfather had, which leads me to believe that he's more of a figurehead for a military clique than the actual ruler.

North Korea has, hitherto, had little choice except to rattle their sabers at the south - with whom they desire to reunite because of their technical capabilities, rocket tests that overfly the south and "coastal assaults" have been an ongoing nuisance to the South (those taking part in the "assault" often surrender at the first opportunity, if they don't then they're summarily executed, hence the "nuisance factor"); they've also rattle their sabers at Japan, an historical enemy which have occupied much of eastern Asia, to include both Koreas, with missile overflights.  This intrusion into foreign air space has earned them more than one censure at the UN.

What concerns me, should PRK finally package a bomb, is that there is only one country to whom they'll listen with any degree of certainty - Communist China - who might be more than willing to turn a blind eye to an ICBM attack on the US.  We aren't talking about a simple rocket and bomb - a nuclear device does not have to be close (near enough doesn't matter!) to cause considerable damage and spreading radiation is also a major consideration - a bomb from the PRK would almost undoubtedly be a very dirty bomb.

So the question has to be presented: At which point does the global community step in? and after delivery, we should hope, is not an option.

[lebe03]

I find there is little to gain from worrying about such things that are outside ones control. 

[Removed #5]

"Worry" may not be the really operative word here, better might be "informed".  There were those in Europe in the 1920's and 30's who had little control and suffered greatly from a lack of information; more recently the people of Cambodia suffered at the hands of the Khmer Rouge, a primarily agrarian people who were decimated by a lack of information.

A little warning is a wonderful thing, but not if you ignore the warning.

[Elyse]

Some excerpts from New York Times, just something to think about:

 

In January 2011, former Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned that North Korea was within five years of being able to strike the continental United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile, and said that, combined with its expanding nuclear program, the country “is becoming a direct threat to the United States.â€

 

In October 2012, North Korea claimed to have missiles that can reach the American mainland, and it said that the recent agreement between the United States and South Korea to extend the range of the South’s ballistic missiles was increasing the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula.

 

Estimating the missile capabilities of a country as secretive as North Korea is notoriously difficult. But military experts and South Korean government officials have said that the North has already deployed ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets as far away as Guam, the American territory in the Pacific.

 

In addition, North Korea has repeatedly conducted what it calls satellite launchings that American and South Korean officials, as well as the United Nations Security Council, have condemned as a cover for developing and testing intercontinental ballistic missile technologyIn 1998, the North sent up a rocket called the Taepodong-1 that flew over Japan and crashed into the Pacific. In 2006, the North launched the Taepodong-2, which exploded seconds after liftoff. It launched yet another long-range rocket, the Unha-2, in 2009; its first two stages appeared to work, but according to American and South Korean officials, the third stage never separated.

 

In April 2012, the Unha-3 rocket disintegrated in midair shortly after liftoff, a failure that the new government in Pyongyang publicly acknowledged.

 

But the North claimed to have successfully placed satellites into orbit in 1998 and 2009. The country has also conducted two nuclear tests, the first in 2006 and the second in 2009, although it remains unclear whether it can make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit atop a missile. Robert M. Gates said in early 2011, while he was the American defense secretary, that North Korea was within five years of being able to strike the continental United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile.

 

With the surprise launching of a rocket that flew beyond the Philippines and apparently put an object into orbit, North Korea showed that after a series of failures it was clearing key technical hurdles toward mastering the technology needed to build an intercontinental ballistic missile, analysts said.

 

The launching prompted the United States and its two main Asian allies,Japan and South Korea, to demand further United Nations sanctions on North Korea. But it was far from clear how far China, the North’s main ally, might be prepared to go in joining that push.

 

China said that it “regrets†the launching, the first time it has used that word in the context of the North’s rocket program. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, also said that North Korea’s right to a peaceful space program was “subject to limitations by relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions,†somewhat tougher language than China has used on that subject in the past.

 

In North Korea, the apparent success gave Mr. Kim a propaganda boon. After state television announced the “important news†that the Unha-3 rocket had put the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, or Shining Star-3, into orbit, government vehicles with loudspeakers rolled through the streets of the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, blaring the news, according to the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency.

 

For President Obama, the launching deepened the complexity of dealing with the new North Korean government, after four years in which promises of engagement, then threats of deeper sanctions, have done nothing to modify the country’s behavior.

 

The North has a long way to go before it can threaten the West Coast of the United States with a nuclear-armed missile. It has yet to develop a nuclear warhead small enough to fit atop its missile, experts say, and it has not tested a vehicle that can withstand the heat of re-entry into the atmosphere. Nor is it clear that the country could aim a missile with much accuracy.

 

Though North Korea insisted it was exercising its right to peaceful activity in space, this is the third time the North has provoked the Obama administration — and, to some degree, the Chinese — in four years, including the country’s nuclear test in 2009.

 

More here: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/northkorea/index.html

[Elyse]

Update here:

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/03/north-korea-south-us-factory.html

[Dave]

I'm not sure I believe they would be able to launch a nuclear weapon but I am sure something will 'kick off' soon.

 

With all of they're threats and starting old reactors the rest of the world has already taken notice

[Emma]

I'm with Dave on this one. Not sure if there's going to be an all out war but judging from the news this morning something is definately going on. I'm not surprised China is so anxious, being associated with north Korea right now could seriously damage their economy and reputation to say the very least.

[aronoiiel]

I like Al's post and quite agree with one major point: China. They hold pretty much all of our debt and tensions have been growing with the constant food and toy products that come into the country contaminated by this or that. Right now they would be the only thing to talk NK down and they really dont have much of a reason to do so. Im not so much concerned about the US at this point in time but more for Japan, Guam, and the various other.allies we have over that direction. It would not be above NK to take their frustrations out on them and quite frankly thanks to the web I have quite a few friends over there and many co workers with family over there. Unless someone opens some line of communication instead of playing the my horse is bigger game things are undoubtly going to take a plunge pretty soon.

[CARRINGTON]

I am not sure I am worried as I think if they really wanted to make an impact they would do it without warning. I think it

Is more about getting us stirred up.

Granted they have things like this before but

I just am not worried

[Marc]

I like Al's post and quite agree with one major point: China. They hold pretty much all of our debt and tensions have been growing with the constant food and toy products that come into the country contaminated by this or that. Right now they would be the only thing to talk NK down and they really dont have much of a reason to do so. Im not so much concerned about the US at this point in time but more for Japan, Guam, and the various other.allies we have over that direction. It would not be above NK to take their frustrations out on them and quite frankly thanks to the web I have quite a few friends over there and many co workers with family over there. Unless someone opens some line of communication instead of playing the my horse is bigger game things are undoubtly going to take a plunge pretty soon.

 

They want to obtain decent nukes for use. I would say China being extremely close have a very very big reason to talk them down. 

[Elyse]

But I thought China is allies with NK? NK wouldn't attack their own allies, would they? Or, well, maybe...considering how bold they've been lately. Threatening to throw nukes at other countries and all...

 

So yeah, I'm worried. If they ever do attack the U.S, and if a missile does somehow make its way anywhere near Washington....we are screwed. Washington is so close where I live, we'll probably be vaporized or irradiated or something. 

 

Is anybody else also worried about biological weapons? Does NK even have the capability to produce biological warheads? (ie: anthrax, mustard gas, etc) 

[aronoiiel]

 

They want to obtain decent nukes for use. I would say China being extremely close have a very very big reason to talk them down. Why would China be worried about that if they dont do anything to upset their ally? Im definitely not smart when it comes to politics so I may be way off here but wouldnt cippling the US be advantageous to China on a military front? The US is already hurting from this last long skirmish if you throw in distrust from our current allies if we cant actually go through with protecting them then China would be sitting pretty as a world power right? Sure nukes cause.more harm than good. Idk maybe in my mind I villianize people to much but from that perspective I would think it had.potential?

[Removed #5]

Time for more commentary.

North Korea (correctly the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea [DPRK]) has diplomatic relationships with 165 countries, most of these are tenuous and, as in the example of Kaesang, are based on the ability of the DPRK to produce products at low cost.  Few of the country's with whom the DPRK have diplomatic relationships would be classed as allies in the military sense.  Economic allies, mostly, at best.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has almost reached a point of tolerating pugnacious behaviour of the DPRK only because it facilitates a buffer between the PRC and the obviously US aligned Republic of Korea [RoK] (South Korea). Understandably the PRC isn't too enthused about having the peninsula reunited if that means that they're going to have US forces sitting literally on the Yalu.  In deference, though, I think that with the commercialization of the PRC that may become less of an obstacle to the reunification than it would have been in the past ( under Mao and the Red Guard era ).  With the, seeming, advent of a truly nuclear enabled North Korea, and were I China, I'd be more than a bit nervous.

Personal opinion:  Even with the ongoing blather that's being spewed forth from the DPRK the world relief organizations continue to find that the people of the DPRK are in dire straits.  We ( the US ) have suspended food aid and other countries have either stopped or cut back.  It's being suggested that even with the UN relief ( which they're still receiving ) there will be another famine similar to the one in the mid to late '90s where literally millions of people starved to death.  It would be, undoubtedly to the benefit of the people of North Korea if the country were once again reunited.

I'm uncertain what the current NATO presence in the RoK is but it did maintain troops there ( Turkish, British, among many others ) for many years after the end of the "conflict" however, there is no doubt in my mind that any military action by the DPRK would bring NATO and US allied forces directly into play.  One of my concerns has been the extension of the joint war-games between the US and RoK, and the open introduction of stealth enabled planes into the theatre.  It's almost as if the US and Rok are suggesting that if North Korea want to "play with the big boys" that they'd better be prepared to play the game in full.

Now the disclaimer,  I've been out of the military for over 30 years, I've not been in Korea for over 40 because I like the Korean people and enjoyed the time I spent there, I've tended to follow the ongoing happenings however I make no pretense that anything is current, correct and definitely nothing other than opinion.

[LittleLuka]

Time for more commentary.

North Korea (correctly the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea [DPRK]) has diplomatic relationships with 165 countries, most of these are tenuous and, as in the example of Kaesang, are based on the ability of the DPRK to produce products at low cost.  Few of the country's with whom the DPRK have diplomatic relationships would be classed as allies in the military sense.  Economic allies, mostly, at best.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has almost reached a point of tolerating pugnacious behaviour of the DPRK only because it facilitates a buffer between the PRC and the obviously US aligned Republic of Korea [RoK] (South Korea). Understandably the PRC isn't too enthused about having the peninsula reunited if that means that they're going to have US forces sitting literally on the Yalu.  In deference, though, I think that with the commercialization of the PRC that may become less of an obstacle to the reunification than it would have been in the past ( under Mao and the Red Guard era ).  With the, seeming, advent of a truly nuclear enabled North Korea, and were I China, I'd be more than a bit nervous.

Personal opinion:  Even with the ongoing blather that's being spewed forth from the DPRK the world relief organizations continue to find that the people of the DPRK are in dire straits.  We ( the US ) have suspended food aid and other countries have either stopped or cut back.  It's being suggested that even with the UN relief ( which they're still receiving ) there will be another famine similar to the one in the mid to late '90s where literally millions of people starved to death.  It would be, undoubtedly to the benefit of the people of North Korea if the country were once again reunited.

I'm uncertain what the current NATO presence in the RoK is but it did maintain troops there ( Turkish, British, among many others ) for many years after the end of the "conflict" however, there is no doubt in my mind that any military action by the DPRK would bring NATO and US allied forces directly into play.  One of my concerns has been the extension of the joint war-games between the US and RoK, and the open introduction of stealth enabled planes into the theatre.  It's almost as if the US and Rok are suggesting that if North Korea want to "play with the big boys" that they'd better be prepared to play the game in full.

Now the disclaimer,  I've been out of the military for over 30 years, I've not been in Korea for over 40 because I like the Korean people and enjoyed the time I spent there, I've tended to follow the ongoing happenings however I make no pretense that anything is current, correct and definitely nothing other than opinion.

Your posts always interest me. For those of us who live in a hole lol it's refreshing to read something that I actually understand.

[Elyse]

Time for more commentary.

North Korea (correctly the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea [DPRK]) has diplomatic relationships with 165 countries, most of these are tenuous and, as in the example of Kaesang, are based on the ability of the DPRK to produce products at low cost.  Few of the country's with whom the DPRK have diplomatic relationships would be classed as allies in the military sense.  Economic allies, mostly, at best.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has almost reached a point of tolerating pugnacious behaviour of the DPRK only because it facilitates a buffer between the PRC and the obviously US aligned Republic of Korea [RoK] (South Korea). Understandably the PRC isn't too enthused about having the peninsula reunited if that means that they're going to have US forces sitting literally on the Yalu.  In deference, though, I think that with the commercialization of the PRC that may become less of an obstacle to the reunification than it would have been in the past ( under Mao and the Red Guard era ).  With the, seeming, advent of a truly nuclear enabled North Korea, and were I China, I'd be more than a bit nervous.

Personal opinion:  Even with the ongoing blather that's being spewed forth from the DPRK the world relief organizations continue to find that the people of the DPRK are in dire straits.  We ( the US ) have suspended food aid and other countries have either stopped or cut back.  It's being suggested that even with the UN relief ( which they're still receiving ) there will be another famine similar to the one in the mid to late '90s where literally millions of people starved to death.  It would be, undoubtedly to the benefit of the people of North Korea if the country were once again reunited.

I'm uncertain what the current NATO presence in the RoK is but it did maintain troops there ( Turkish, British, among many others ) for many years after the end of the "conflict" however, there is no doubt in my mind that any military action by the DPRK would bring NATO and US allied forces directly into play.  One of my concerns has been the extension of the joint war-games between the US and RoK, and the open introduction of stealth enabled planes into the theatre.  It's almost as if the US and Rok are suggesting that if North Korea want to "play with the big boys" that they'd better be prepared to play the game in full.

Now the disclaimer,  I've been out of the military for over 30 years, I've not been in Korea for over 40 because I like the Korean people and enjoyed the time I spent there, I've tended to follow the ongoing happenings however I make no pretense that anything is current, correct and definitely nothing other than opinion.

 

I guess all we can do is wait and see then? Is there no way the people of NK could flee the country to escape famine? As refugees? Or are the people so repressed leaving was never an option??

 

And what I would also like to know: why hasn't anybody done anything yet? Are they going to wait until NK fires off a missile? Or are they waiting (and hoping) for them to back down?

 

You might not have any of the answers, but hey...you certainly seem very well read!

[aronoiiel]

I love your pozts Al I guess we are all playing the waiting and guessing games.